Thursday, January 27, 2011

Amazon.com, Inc. [Bullish]

Amazon has earnings release after close today. If I had surplus capital I would buy AMZN. I think they are going to crush expectations.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

SMART Modular Technologies (WWH), Inc. [Bullish]

Current Price: $6.08
Strengths:

-Recent technical strength - could be beginning of uptrend - largest positive volume day since October and gapped up
-Recovering economy so hopefully greater demand for DRAM as well.
-Not very leveraged - Balance sheet cash can easily cover debt
-High Accumulated Depreciation so fair value of PPE may be much higher
-Good earning power -Quarter ending 11/26/2010- about $8M net income (annualized of $32)even half annual NI for $16 million-- at a 10x multiple + a discounted book value of equity (especially for $100M of inventory)still leaves us w a valuation floor of $410M or $6.5 per share of SMOD.
-Potential Acquisition target? Fundamentally undervalued and I'm curious what fair value of its PPE and operations would be

Weaknesses:
-Weak medium term technicals - Strong 2009, Flat 2010, Declining DRAM prices could entail a decline in 2011
-Recent Q2 EBITDA guidance of $.06-.08 vs expected $.19
-Operating scale is much smaller relative to competitors so will be even more vulnerable from eroding margins
-3 major customers make for over half of sales (maybe research their financial position and creditworthiness)

Wednesday, January 5, 2011