Thursday, February 10, 2011

ArvinMeritor, Inc. (ARM) [Bearish]

Market cap 1.8B trading around $19.50

275M Cash + 530 AR = 805
430 Inv
430GW
400 net PPE
2800 Total Assets
1.4B gross PPE, 1B accum dep

650 AP + 110 net accrued exp + 530 other current liabilities = 1290
1B LTD
90M Deferred tax
35 Minority interest
1375 other liabilities – retirement benefits 1.1B, check 305 other
3800 TL

-1000 rBVe
+1000 accDep
0 aBVe
-430 GW
-430 Be
Weak financial position

Best case earning power
40M GP less SGA per quarter for 160M annual
100M Interest expense about 25M per quarter
+80M annual dep
-80M annual capex
2008 + 2009 capex = 98, 82, respectively – during down turn so assuming that’s baseline maintenance capex (although have had divestitures – but recent quarters show 20M capex as well)

Let’s add a generous 15M from affiliates each quarter for 60M annual.

120M income at 10x multiple = 1200

Misc.
60M investment in 2008 – poor timing and probably over paid
Luckily its significant debt maturities start in 2015, 2018
But it’s still bad that they have 1.1B in retirement liabilities
CCC+ rated unsecured debt

Even after given generous figures, it has a weak financial position and earning power for a company trading at 1800M market cap. Think it could stand to drop 20% or more.